Modelitzacio probabilística per a predir l'evolució de la COVID-19: parametrització i correcció automàtica
Dates: from May 14, 2021 to Nov. 13, 2022
Funder: AGAUR (Catalonia)
Project id: 2020PANDE00098
Total Funding: 298,350€
Node Funding: 149,175€
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The project aim to develop an intelligent epidemiological assessment and prevention system that combines the processing of data on human activity, interaction and mobility, epidemiological and clinical data related to COVID-19, and the mathematical modeling that uses this data to calculate the probabilities of epidemic risk and effective reproductive number in Catalonia and Spain. This system initially integrates the different scales of interaction and mobility of each age group, each stage of the disease, and each locality. In addition, it plans to disaggregate the population also by socioeconomic level or by other characteristics that, at any given time, may be defining of the social behavior in relation to the disease. The system will make it possible to project risks for each locality and for each group based on the cases detected. The system will also incorporate clinical, healthcare and hospital data, making it possible to detect early risks associated with the saturation of the healthcare system. These predictions are extremely relevant in the early stages of virus spread (when the impact is reduced to a few cases), inhomogeneous epidemic scenarios (such as in March and April, 2020) and in the early stages of the opening.